Global tendencies in the sector of employment.

The research prepared by ILO (International Labour Organization) is concerned with the present state in the sector of employment which resulted from the economic growth retardation in the world in 2001-2002 and estimation of employment till 2010.

ILO estimates that within years 2001-2002 the number of the unemployed in the world increased by 20 million people and by the end of 2002 it reached 180 million people (p.1). The unemployment increased in all countries - industrialized countries (IC) and developing countries (DC). The overwhelming majority of the unemployed are women since mainly women are engaged in the branches quickly reacting to economic shocks. Besides, more and more young people cannot find job in a labour market. Though the rate of unemployment among young people decreased at the end of the 1990ies, at the beginning of a new century it began increasing again.

A difficult economic situation pushes people to search work in informal sector of economy where employment is unstable and the salary is lower. Unlike in the last years now the informal economy in DC cannot take all those who have not got a job in the sector of official economy. The growth of employment in informal sector results in the increase of the number of poor employees which by the end of 2002 had reached 550 million people, i.e. the level which was recorded in 1998. If this tendency remains, it may call into question the achievement of the planned by the United Nations world poverty double reduction by 2015.

As a result of the economic recession which began in the middle of 2001, employment in information and telecommunication branches decreased, and as well as in tourism sphere the situation in which was affected by the act of terrorism on September 11, 2001. The reduction of employment in IС caused reduction of employment in export-oriented branches of DC, such as clothes manufacture in which mainly women are engaged.

The loss of the investor’s trust showed the fragility of the financial system of many countries of various regions. Financial crises triggered unemployment growth. So, in Argentina in 2002 it exceeded 20% of economically active population (p. 2). Armed conflicts also contributed to the growth of unemployment and poverty, for example, in such remote from each other countries as Columbia and Nepal.

The prospects in employment in the world are rather uncertain. According to ILO forecasts, in 2010 more than 60% of economically active world’s population will live in Asia, more than 25% — in China. The economically active population will increase in the regions where DCs are located, namely, Africa to the south from Sahara, Middle East and Northern Africa, Latin America and Caribbean basin. On the contrary, the economically active population of ICs and countries in transition will be reduced and will make about 20%. In the countries of Asia and Africa to the south from Sahara it is necessary to create the majority of new workplaces — 60 and 15% respectively. Generally, to take new workers arriving to labour market the number of workplaces in the world should increase by 400 million within 8 years. It is necessary to provide the worthy salary and high efficiency at the new workplaces in order to reduce poverty. Otherwise the number of the poor will increase. It is stated, that to reduce poverty and to take new workers arriving to labour market, it is necessary to create about 1 billion workplaces by 2010. At the same time the policy of the economic growth acceleration should be pursued.

However, the prospects of economic growth remain unclear. Though in the majority of the Asian countries features of the economic growth renewal can be observed, but impedimental factors still remain. Dependence of the Asian countries on the import of oil and difficulties in economy of Japan influence renewal of income growth of the population of this region negatively. Nevertheless, according to ILO forecasts, by 2010 the unemployment rate here will be twice reduced in comparison with 1998. For this purpose the growth of gross national product is to be 4% per year (p. 5).

The quarter of economically active world's population lives in China, and it is a major factor of employment change in the world. A more effective labour market of China can open new prospects in the field of employment, especially in the sphere of services which is insufficiently developed. It is urgent to take measures aimed at the change of the structure of state enterprises and agriculture and reforming of the financial system so as to stop subsidizing unprofitable enterprises. China will further attract direct foreign investments into the development of its home market and export to other Asian countries. Besides, some countries of the Asian region are going to use the extensive market of China for selling its export production which will enable them to weaken their dependence on ICs where rates of economic growth are still low.

In 2002 in the countries of Latin America and Caribbean basin mediocre economic results were observed. The gain of gross national product at the rate of 3% is insufficient for a significant improvement of the situation with employment. To twice reduce unemployment and a share of poor workers, the level of economic growth within 5-10 years should be not less than 4.5% per year. In the near future a further development and increase of informal economy and the number of poor workers in this group of countries are predicted.

In the countries of Northern Africa and Middle East, despite rather high prices for oil, still remaining political instability renders negative influence both on investments, and on tourism. Under condition that in 2003 of rate of economic growth will reach 4.7%, the situation with employment may be improved, which will allow to lower unemployment rate and a share of poor workers.

Countries in transition need attraction of foreign investments and maintenance of internal demand. Rates of economic growth should reach 4.5 % in 2003. In the process of transition to market economy and increase of incomes of the population up to the level of incomes in the countries of the Western Europe the prospects of employment in this group of countries will be improving. But for liquidation of structural unemployment the economic growth should be accompanied by carrying out of the corresponding policy.

Low rates of economic growth in ICs render negative influence on export of other countries which, at the very least, entails increase of pressure on the level of wages and working conditions in the latter.

Deterioration of the situation with employment in the world, and also the probability of the economic revival delay and of low rates of economic growth makes for the growth of unemployment, partial employment and of the number of poor workers. International Labour Organization acted with an appeal to twice reduce the level of poverty in the world by 2015 which presupposes non-admission of the economic growth rates slowing down which may cause economic recession. It will have serious consequences for social and political stability of the whole regions. Besides, the increased unemployment and poverty will be a heavy load for budgets of states and also will hamper stabilization of the financial position of many countries. It is necessary that people in charge concentrate their efforts on measures aimed at maintenance of economic growth since high rates of economic growth create opportunities for of new workplaces creation.

To support growth of employment in DCs and to provide creation of 1 billion workplaces within the next ten years, governments should overcome three complexes of fundamental structural problems.

First of all, labour demand in official economy is low and is frequently reduced. In the two most populated countries — India and China — growth of manufacture is accompanied by insignificant increase in labour utilization. Structural reforms and the policy of competitiveness increasing result in reduction of employment in traditional branches in the countries with economy in transition of the Central and Eastern Europe and Dcs of Southern Africa and Latin America, in particular. To create the necessary number of workplaces for the growing economically active population during structural changes in economy, manufacture growth rates should be very high. However, such high rates will hardly be achieved. In this connection, in the macroeconomic aspect, it is necessary to stimulate investments into labour-consuming branches. Measures aimed at stimulation of the creation of workplaces in the private sector of economy should be accompanied by development of the public sector infrastructure.

Secondly, DCs and the poor population are least influenced by external shocks that can cause growth of unemployment and poverty. Therefore government should pay special attention to carrying out of the countercyclical macroeconomic policy aimed at easing the negative influence of growth retardation or economic recession on employment. International organizations should assist countries which are not capable of financing such policy independently. The active policy in the field of employment and social protection is the main element of the policy of decrease of economic instability in the globalized world.

In the long term development strategies should be aimed at increase of the economic status of a country in the world and at reception of higher dividends from trade. Realization of these tasks presupposes diversification of manufacture which will allow to distribute and soften risks of instability, lower customs barriers, limit negative consequences of dependence of the economy on raw production demands, and also rejection of protectionism used by the agricultural sector of ICs. For establishment of links of the poorest areas with the national and international markets it is necessary to develop transport and power infrastructure, communications, to raise qualification of labour force by the increase of investments into education and skills training.

Thirdly, the existence of poverty itself prevents growth of employment as the poor lack education and qualification to receive worthy employment and lack funds for maintenance of health necessary for high-efficiency work. In such situation governments should take measures to help poor people to receive a worthy, well-paid job. The decrease of poverty presupposes creation of favourable conditions for development of small and medium-sized enterprises and for their integration into formal economy, and also the investments into education systems and public health services to raise labour productivity of economically active population. Besides, for development of economic, social and political abilities of citizens it is necessary to put an end to limitations of the trade-union rights and to fight discrimination, use of child labour and other negative social phenomena.

To overcome difficulties in employment sector integrated social strategies are necessary which will have supplying people with worthy work as their main task. To improve global prospects in the sphere of employment high rates of economic growth are not enough. It is necessary to achieve the situation when economic rise will purposefully serve the growth of employment and improvement of position of the poor population.